SP500 Choppiness Index at Multi-Decade Low

The 14-day Choppiness Index for the SP500 hit a reading of 4.60 on April 17, 2026.  That's on a scale from 0 to 100, and it is the lowest reading in at least the last 30 years.  It might be the lowest ever, but I only checked back 30 years.

The math for the Choppiness Index was created by Australian commodities trader E.W. Driess, as a way to quantify how choppy (or not) the recent price action has been.  It shows a high reading when above 62, or a low reading below 38 (Driess was evidently a Fibonacci ratios fan).  The 14-day Choppiness Index can go well beyond those thresholds, as it has just done with the April 17 extreme low.

A high Choppiness Index reading says that the market has been trendless recently, and thus a trending move is likely to develop.  But such a reading will not tell you in which direction that trending move will go, just that some type of trending move is likely.  Conversely, a very low reading means that the recent data have been extremely linear, and thus a non-trending period is likely. 

That is not very shocking news to receive after we have just seen such a price move.  A move like that merits a pause for the bulls to catch their breath.  The Choppiness Index is just a way of quantifying that.  It will not say how long such a pause may last, nor what is going to happen after that pause.  It just says that a pause is likely. 

Sometimes a trend-ending low reading can mark an immediate trend change.  That is what we saw at the price low in April 2025.  The very low 14-day Choppiness Index reading of 18.9 on April 7, 2025 marked the end of that down move, and what unfolded next was a sharp reversal higher.  Very little time was spent in a "non-trending" market.  So it is possible for such readings to mark reversal points.  That is more likely when these low Choppiness Index readings coincide with bottoms.

And this is the important point to emphasize: The Choppiness Index says nothing about uptrends or downtrends, about tops or bottoms.  It is agnostic about direction, and only comments on how linear (or not) the recent action is.  Accordingly, the Choppiness Index cannot be used alone as a trading tool.  It is an informative indicator to employ alongside other tools.