Pull the trigger with confidence.

This week's chart is one that I show in almost every issue of our twice month McClellan Market Report.  It shows how the movements of gold prices tend to get echoed again (imperfectly) 20-1/2 months later in the movements of long term interest rates.

The Treasury Yield Index represents the current yield to maturity on whichever is the most recently issued 30-year Treasury bond series.  I could substitute the 20-year yield in this chart, and it would look similar.  The key point is that... Read More

The Ratio-Adjusted Summation Index (RASI) for NYSE A-D got up to +471 on May 8, 2026 and then turned down.  Failing to get up above about the +500 level is a sign that a rebound does not have enough energy to achieve "escape velocity", and it invites the market to go back and at least retest the last price low.

We have not gotten that outcome this time, at least not yet.  And the RASI is still below +500, now making a divergent lower high at +366 (for the moment), which disagrees with the... Read More

I wrote last week about how the very quiet breadth data were producing a low reading on the Fosback Absolute Breadth Indicator.  That low reading is consistent with a topping condition for prices.

The same message appears in a different way in this week's chart.  The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator has been hanging around very close to the zero level, producing the lowest reading in years for its 15-day range.  This too is consistent with a topping condition for prices, although this... Read More

Years ago, analyst Norman Fosback hatched the idea of looking at the absolute value of the daily breadth (A-D) numbers.  He discarded the direction, i.e. whether it was positive or negative, to just look at how big the numbers were in recent days.  That is what this week's chart shows, employing a 21-day simple moving average for smoothing the data.

The principle behind this is that at market bottoms, things get loud and hectic, both upward and downward.  So high readings for absolute... Read More

When oil prices turned upward from their January 2026 low, that upturn was roughly on schedule.  But the magnitude of the up move we have seen was overdone because of the shutdown of shipping out of the Persian Gulf.  Oil prices are normalizing now, but the uptrend should resume.

I say all of this because of the longstanding leading indication relationship gold prices have with oil prices.  In this week's chart, the plot of gold prices is shifted forward by just under 20 months to reveal... Read More

One of the fun magic tricks which the McClellan Oscillator does is that it gives us a message about who is in charge, the bulls or the bears.  It does this with the formation of "complex" or "simple" structures on either side of the zero neutral level.

My parents, Sherman and Marian McClellan, introduced the McClellan Oscillator to the world back in 1970, with their booklet Patterns For Profit.  The title was very intentional.  The patterns of behavior in the Oscillator tell us far more... Read More

The stock market has seen a powerful advance since the March 30, 2026 price low, led by tech stocks generally and chip stocks more specifically.  Nvidia has been a big part of that, and with a 9% weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) it has helped to push that index up in a big way.  But now the two are diverging, and that is bad news.

Normally when we think of bearish divergences, they involve a big index and some weaker representation of the market like the Advance-Decline (A-D) Line.  The... Read More

The employment level as a percentage of the US population continues to fall, even though the stock market has been rising.  That breaks a longstanding relationship shown in this week's chart.

Normally the employment level as a percentage of the population bottoms about a year after an important stock market bottom.  The last such price bottom was in September 2022, on a monthly basis.  That should have meant a bottom for the employment/population ratio around September 2023.  Instead it has... Read More